Moreover, in their analysis of 188 metropolitan statistical areas, Kovandzic, Sloan, and Vieraitis (2004, p. Accordingly, few statistically significant declines and no additional incapacitation effects were observed for instrumental crimes in three strikes states (Chen, 2008, p. However, this cannot be attributed comprehensively to the legislation since these crimes are not covered under most states’ three strikes provisions.

Additionally, crime rates for instrumental offenses fell annually at rates ranging from about 1 to 3 percent more rapidly in three strikes states when adjusted for the preexisting nationwide crime rate reduction trend. Nonetheless, this trend was not especially pronounced in California as would have been expected (Johnson & Saint-Germain, 2005). Interestingly, murder rates in three strikes states declined 12.9 percent less rapidly than the national trend, indicating that the fear of mandatory sentencing may have motivated certain criminals to eliminate witnesses and visit violence upon arresting officers (Chen, 2008, p. burglary, larceny) should have fallen more dramatically, considering that these crimes generally involve more forethought and could be more easily deterred.Īn evaluation of the data revealed that three strikes states experienced a slower decline in most areas of crime prior to the implementation of their laws when compared to other states, which may have been responsible for the laws’ initial gravitas among citizens and policy-makers.

Moreover, rates for instrumental crimes (e.g. Theoretically, the California law would have had a greater impact on crime rates than did comparable laws in other states given its scope and frequency of application. This was done in order to discern which variations of the legislation had produced the most significant results. The primary purpose of the study was to determine the impact of other three strikes states’ laws as compared to California’s. Therein, seven separate offenses were trended murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny/theft, and motor vehicle theft. Impact of Three Strikes on National Crime TrendsĬhen (2008) analyzed state-level crime data for the entire United States, with particular attention paid to three strikes states, from 1986 to 2005 in order to quantify the efficacy of the legislation pursuant to deterrence and incapacitation. In hindsight, perhaps the only regret attached to Initiative 593 is that earlier passage may have prevented several rapes, robberies, and assaults in the State of Washington. Unfortunately, multiple violent felony offenses are not uncommon for repeat criminals like Johnson and Fisher.

Larry Fisher was also sentenced under Initiative 593 following his commission of an armed robbery which became his 17 th conviction six of which were felonies (LaCourse, 1994, pp. His final conviction was the result of his decision to kidnap and repeatedly rape a 16 year-old girl at knifepoint. Notably, one of these offenders, Michael Johnson, was actually a fourth-striker, since he had committed three prior felonies before 1993. However, within four months following its implementation, a dozen violent criminals rapists, assaulters, child molesters, and robbers, each with several prior convictions who generally preyed on women and the elderly, were sentenced to life in prison. Given the narrow scope of Initiative 593, significant reductions in crime rates were not expected since the law, by design, applies to relatively few offenders (Dickey & Hollenhorst, 1999).

Three strikes law states